My New Year predictions are even less likely to be fulfilled than my New Year resolutions (which include traveling less in 2009). But, as the man said, optimism is okay as long as you don’t inhale. So do not expect too much from my crystal ball. More sapient soothsayers than me have more questions than answers.
Expect the unexpected. Will international business travel return to 2000 levels? How important is the ‘hassle factor,’ a result of more onerous and stringent security, in keeping the road warrior off the road? What role will state-of-the-art videoconferencing play as a prime substitute for business ‘interactions’? Not a lot in my view.
Let the bad times roll! You don’t have to be a professional cynic to believe that what is bad for the travel trade is good for the traveler; depending on the fine balance between supply and demand - the difference between a buyers’ and sellers’ market.
The late author, Anthony Samson, once said that there are only two types of planes, empty planes and full planes. And the challenge for the traveler is to find a flight with plenty of empty seats.
Amid the doom and gloom, I am getting mixed signals.
IATA has forecasted $4.1 billion losses for airlines this year, even with oil prices falling; more than 30 airlines have gone bust in the last 12 months; carriers are supposed to be cutting capacity in an attempt to meet slowing demand.
And yet I am getting mixed signals from a pick of recent headlines: while some airlines are cutting back, others are adding new services.
‘Emirates double flights between Dubai and Milan;’ ‘Boeing sees strong Asia-Pacific market with ample investor opportunities;’ ‘KLM returns to Liverpool after 70 years..’
‘Virgin Atlantic flying high…11 percent more business travelers in 2008;’ ‘BA cuts capacity as profit crashes 92 percent.’
And what’s this? Air Asia X, Asia’s biggest no-frills carriers, is launching the first long-haul budget service between Kuala Lumpur and London-Stansted on March 11, 2009.
‘Credit-crunch’ is now vying with ‘war on terror’ as the mantra of the decade; but the impact on travelers is likely to be far less onerous. The post-9/11 ‘war on terror’ contributed much to the delays, indignities and the misery of air travel - harassment by over-zealous immigration and security officials and baggage restrictions. But the ‘credit-crunch’ and the crazy unpredictable (can economists predict anything - except what has already happened!) swings in the price of oil may perversely turn out to be good news for travelers.
Travelers complain that the price of tickets can just about double when it comes to the final amount charged, thanks to a raft of taxes, fuel surcharges, and airline charges for almost everything, from checked baggage to onboard beverages, even soft drinks and water, to changing tickets.
The airlines believe that “à la carte,” pay-for-all-the-extras pricing is the magic bullet for restoring profitability. À la carte pricing will work for both airlines and travelers provided it is “transparent” and offers customer choice; after all, why pay for a meal and beverages, or baggage services that you don’t need? American Airlines, for example, has announced it will fully implement à la carte pricing next year. There are likely to be a few basic fares, giving travelers the option of paying for additional services.
Air Canada has an exemplary à la carte pricing model: travelers can choose from four basic fare levels. The top tickets, Latitude and Executive Class, are all refundable and come with priority check-in, food, drinks and all the frills. The cheapest fare, Tango, requires extra fees for meals, advance seat selection, flight changes and airport lounge access; Tango passengers can save $3 if they forgo frequent flier miles, or do not check a bag.
Speculating on the scope for a la carte options with the Airbus A380 Super Jumbo some time ago, I envisaged one of the airline alliances, such as Star Alliance or Oneworld, operating the ‘flying village’ for member airlines, who might share the same plane on certain routes, with their own fares, flight attendants, in-flight cuisine, and style of service. Franchises would be sold for wining and dining and other amenities.
Even the airport experience promises to be less of a terminal nightmare thanks to growing use of self-service options.
The next stage to printing out the boarding card at home will be to check in with your cell phone, or use it as a postbox for a Web check-in. Check in the night before and send it to your mobile. According to IATA, ten airlines enable mobile phone check-in with bar-coded boarding passes.
Cell phones will lessen the misery of hanging around the airport waiting for a delayed flight.
Mobile technology will enable airlines to send a message to you saying, ‘don’t turn up at the airport at two o’clock but at four; and by the way, here’s your new boarding pass. You will also be able to use your mobile device as a boarding pass. Airports in Japan, Scandinavia and Germany are even installing self-boarding gates. Travelers present their boarding pass either as a piece of paper or mobile with a bar code.
Look out too for unmanned baggage drop facilities. If your bags don’t make it to the other end, instead of standing in line for an agent, you will fill in the data at a kiosk, or an Internet work station, in the baggage hall, print a receipt, and leave without seeing anyone.